 2043: The Date for Turkey's EU membership
Do you believe in prophecies? I have never taken seriously the discussions on prophecies. Recently, I was surfing Internet news and was extremely surprised. It was about the prophecies of Baba Vanga. I could not help myself reading and thinking about the news.
Baba Vanga was a blind and illiterate Bulgarian who lived between 1911 and 1996. Baba Vanga was known to many Bulgarians as a powerful, mystical figure in Bulgaria's recent history, whose prophecies have been compared to some of Nostradamus'.
According to one story, as a child Vanga was caught in a storm, which uprooted trees, blew sand and dust into her eyes and whisked her into the air before leaving her in a field some distance from her house. When the storm abated, the young Vanga was found to have lost sight in both her eyes. It was then, when she became blind, that she was said to have received her “gift.” This gift consisted of the ability to foretell the future.
Among Vanga's visitors were village people, intellectuals, ministers and politicians. She was even visited by Adolf Hitler during WWII. She was also asked for counsel by the Russian secret service, KGB.
She is said to have foretold the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Chernobyl disaster, Boris Yeltsin's electoral victory, the date of Stalin's death, the sinking of the Russian submarine Kursk, the September 11 attacks and an African American becoming the American president.
What particularly drew my attention are her prophecies for the forthcoming decades. She foresaw that the new hegemon of the world will be China in 2018 and the prospective world order will be based on communism in 2076. Actually, these prophecies are not extremely surprising. To a person who is somewhat familiar with global politics, the probability of their realization is not less likely. China is a rising power vis-a-vis the United States. While China was the only country that maintained its economic growth even during the 2009 financial crisis, the U.S. economy was badly influenced by the latest economic crisis. Its overextension into various parts of the world particularly, Iraq and Afghanistan, were the factors undermining the hegemonic power of the United States. Given these circumstances, China is likely to replace the hegemonic position of the United States. If “communist” China is likely to be the new hegemon, it is likely that China will spread its particular type of “communism” over the world. Which “evil” would you prefer?
Another striking prophecy is that “a Muslim country will dominate Europe in 2048.” If we take it seriously, there are two Muslim countries in Europe: Albania and Turkey. Seemingly, Albania would have little chance with its two and half million population and its insignificant economic and political power. I guess, it is probably Turkey. This prophecy seems compatible with the institutional regulations of the EU.The weight of the member countries in decision making depends on their population size. In 2048, Turkey's population will be more than any EU country and if it is accepted, its weight in decision making will be enormous. To the attention of the decision makers….. Should we be happy since Turkey will eventually be given EU membership or not since it is too late? If I will not enjoy my freedom of movement within the EU boundaries in my youth, who cares?
As the future will always remain out of our hands, fortune telling will always be a focus of our attention even though we do not credit them for their sometimes accurate predictions.
BY GONCA ŞAHİN (IR/IV)
sahin_g@ug.bilkent.edu.tr
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