Library Lunchtime Lecture Explores Turkey's Accession to the EU

On November 10, Professor Sübidey Togan from the Department of Economics gave a talk on the prospects of Turkey's accession to the European Union (EU) for the second lunchtime lecture organized by Bilkent University Library. Noting that Turkey's accession talks have been dogged by a number of problems, Professor Togan tried to answer the questions why Turkey is insisting on membership in the EU if the chances of membership are so dim, and if membership in the EU will not materialize, what are the alternatives?

Professor Togan emphasized that Turkey's quest to join the EU has deep roots in Turkish modernization and associated orientation in Turkish policy towards the West, in particular towards Europe starting in the 18th and 19th centuries. In addition, he pointed out that Turkey during the pre-accession period will adopt the acquis communautaire - or the accumulated body of EU law, acquis in short - and thereby hopes to acquire institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressures and market forces.

Concentrating on economic aspects, Togan stressed that Turkey by adopting the acquis hopes to acquire the "institutions" for running a successful market economy and to follow the "universal" principles of sound economic policy. According to Dani Rodrick of Harvard University, the "universal" principles of sound economic policy consist of allocative efficiency, macroeconomic and financial stability, and social inclusion. The idea of a market economy is embedded in five sets of non-market institutions: conventions for protecting property rights, regulatory bodies, processes for macroeconomic stabilization, social insurance networks, and means for conflict management. Furthermore, once a member of the EU, Turkey expects to be eligible for EU agricultural subsidies and structural funds, to benefit from migration of Turkish labor to the EU, to derive welfare gains from monetary integration, and to participate in EU institutions and EU decision-making processes. Through this process Turkey aims to close the economic gap between it and the rich countries in the world.

Although EU accession seems to be the first best policy option for Turkey, the achievement of EU membership in the near future seems to be unfeasible.  First, there is strong opposition to Turkish membership in the EU. According to the Eurobarometer special survey, conducted among all the candidate and potential candidate countries, Turkey's accession generates the most disapproval. Second, there is a lack of strong supporters (other than Britain) for Turkish entry into the EU. Third, it is argued that the EU does not have the capacity to absorb Turkey as a member, and that the dream of political union in Europe will have to be buried forever with Turkish accession. Fourth, there are geographical and cultural arguments against Turkey's EU membership. It is argued that Turkey is not a European country and that it has a different culture from Europe. Fifth, it is stressed that the costs of accession to the EU could be substantial for Turkey, and that Turkey will face difficulty meeting the costs associated with its share. Sixth, there is fear from the unknown as emphasized by Dominique Moisi in his recent book, The Politics of Emotion. Summarizing, Turkey is seen, as pointed out by different people, as a society that is too big, too poor, too far away, and too Islamic.

If EU accession in the near future will not materialize, what are the alternatives for Turkey-EU relations? Summarizing the main alternatives as Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, European Neighborhood Policy, Black-Sea Synergy, and Privileged Partnership, Togan noted that the EU is interested in signing "deep and comprehensive free trade agreements" with the neighboring countries but is not interested in extending to those countries EU agricultural subsidies, EU structural policies, and the free movement of persons. Exclusion will also encompass their participation in EU institutions and decision-making processes.

Consideration of the alternatives to EU accession reveal that Turkey would not fit easily into a Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, the Neighborhood Policy, or Black Sea Synergy. Privileged Partnership could essentially be negotiated as long as it would help Turkey to acquire acquis institutions and help Turkey to follow the "universal" principles of sound economic policy. But such an agreement would require the re-negotiation of the 1963 Association Agreement (Ankara Agreement), and Turkey might be reluctant to do that.

Officially, Turkey is not interested in any relationship with the EU short of Full Membership. Thus, Turkey in the future will probably stick to its current EU policy and carry on with the accession negotiations, however long the negotiations may take. In such a case it would be advisable for Turkey to concentrate its efforts in the near future on adopting and implementing that part of the acquis that would make Turkey acquire the institutions for running a successful market economy and adopt the "universal" principles of sound economic policy. The adoption and implementation of the other parts of the acquis on economic policy could be left for later periods when the prospects of membership in the EU would increase.

At the end of the talk, Professor Togan answered the questions of the enthusiastic audience on this critical subject.

İsmail Uyanık (EEE/VI) contributed to this article.